Performance Measurement Paper

Performance Measurement Paper LaVonda Jones MGT/437 6/30/2010 Dr. Kemit Grafton Performance Measurement Paper Project managers use performance measurement to help plan, initiate, execute, and close projects that they work on. Using measures like evaluating, controlling, and budgeting helps project managers and team members monitor progress on the project. In this paper, one will compare and contrast the above measurements and discuss the importance of each within a project. Evaluating a Project Using the evaluating measure helps the project manager improve the performance of the team.They determine what the team needs so that the team may accomplish the goals set in the planning phase of the project. When the project manager evaluates a project, the manager makes sure that the goals for the project are clear. The strategies and objectives are coherent for the team to understand how they should complete a successful project. The project manager must work with the team and agree on a p lan for the project. The team will use all resources that are available to them when evaluating their project. Clarifying ground rules are necessary so that all team members are working together in the same direction.Negotiations are necessary by the team as a whole and documentation is necessary to keep written proof of project ordeals. For a project manager to efficiently evaluate their project, the project manager should keep track of past projects and use them to set the standard or determine if things are moving along on track for the new project. 2. To Control How can managers ensure their subordinates are doing the right thing. Today managers do not control their workforce mechanically (measurement of time-and-motion for control as during Taylor) However managers still use measures to control, while allowing some space for freedom in the workforce. Robert Kaplan & David Norton) Business has control bias. Because traditional measurement system sprung from finance function, the system has a control bias. Organisation create measurement systems that specify particular actions they want execute- for branch employess to take a particular ways to execute what they want- branch to spend money. Then they want to measure to see whether the employees have in fact taken those actions. Need to measure input by individual into organisation and process.Officials need to measure behavior of individuals then compare this performance with requirements to check who has and has not complied. Often such requirements are described only as guidelines. Do not be fooled. These guidelines are really requirements and those requirement are designed to control. The measurement of compliance with these requirements is the mechanism of control. 3. To Budget Budgets are crude tools in improving performance. Poor performance not always may change after applying budgets cuts as a disciplinary actions. Sometimes budgets increase could be the answer to improving performance.Like purchasi ng better technology because the current ones are outdated and harm operational processes. So decision highly influenced by circomstance, you need measures to better understand the situation. At the macro level, elected officials deciding which purpose of government actions are primary or secondary. Political priorities drive macro budgetory choices. Once elected officials have established macro political priorities, those responsible for micro decisions may seek to invest their limited allocation of resources in the most cost-effective units and activities.In allocating budgets, managers, in response to macro budget allocations (driven by political objectives), determin alloactions at the micro level by using measures of efficiency of various activities, which programs or organisations are more efficient at achieving the political objectives. Why spend limited funds on programs that do not guarantee exceptional performance? Efficiency is determined by observing performance- output and outcome achieved considering number of people involved in the process (productivity per person) and cost-data (capturing direct cost as well as indirect)

Analyzing Recreation & Leisure Essay

The therapeutic recreation process is a systematic method of planning and providing services for individuals with disabilities. The process is based on a systems theory approach. The system is designed for a guide for a well-defined, goal-oriented purpose to the activity or program being provided. It involves four phases: assessment, planning, implementation and evaluation. Use of the therapeutic recreation process is not dependent on location, but on systematic and consistent use of assessing, planning, implementing and evaluating services for people with disabilities. The process is applied in settings like hospitals, long-term facilities and useful in leisure education and recreation participation settings, like park and recreation agencies and schools. Delivering therapeutic recreation services in community setting has been successful when the therapeutic recreation process is applied. It is not the setting that determines the use of the therapeutic recreation process, but the needs of the clients. Using the therapeutic recreation process allows the therapeutic recreation specialist to individualize within recreation programs designed specifically for people with disabilities and to systematically develop support plans for inclusive recreation programs. The therapists conducts an assessment that identifies the client’s abilities and limitations by asking a series of questions related to social skills and observing their interactions with their peers. Information is gathered not only for the client, but also from family, caregiver, social worker, friends, and vocational counselor to provide thorough information prior to participation so that the client needs may be addressed. The purpose is to determine the needs of the individual in relation to the independent functioning in recreation settings. Materials include questions designed to determine an individual’s needs related to independent recreation participation. Read more:Â  Essay on Leisure and Recreation in Action Program descriptions clarify activity content, participation requirements, possible risks, and intended outcomes that aid in determining these needs. Thorough and accurate information about the individual is necessary, even when participation is self initiated and voluntary. Without accurate information the quality of an assessment is compromised. Programs and activities may be pre-planned; assessments enable the therapeutic recreation specialist to individualize interventions, accommodations, and teaching strategies within group activities. For example, the leisure education program in which the client is registered may have a group goal to improve socialization skills through participation in group activities, but the client will have a goal more specific to their needs, such as the client will use socially appropriate means to identify deficits in specific activity skill (i. e. sports), as well as general skill (i. e. social skills). In addition, assessments for an individual participating in a specialized recreation program may differ from an assessment used with someone who is interested in participating in an inclusive recreation program. Assessments applied to those participating in separate programs often ask for more detail about the person’s level of functioning that an assessment used to analyze participation in inclusive recreation would. A unique aspect of a community recreation assessment is that it can be a lifelong process. Unlike treatment settings, such as hospitals where a therapeutic recreation specialist may only work with and individual for a brief period of time, people with disabilities who participate in community recreation programs often remain involved in programs for many years. From the assessment of the client’s social skills, the therapist discovered that the client had trouble initiating and sustaining conversations. For example, the client would stand by themselves and watch their peers rather than joining in conversations. When the client’s peers would include them in conversations, the client would walk away. The therapeutic recreation specialist found that the client often feels like they do not know what to say to others. The planning phase of the therapeutic recreation process can guide a therapeutic recreation specialist in developing individualized goals and objective for the client and then select recreation activities to meet the goals and objectives. The planning component is helpful for identifying activities to meet goals and objectives that promote independent recreation functioning. Some activities have the potential for improvement of functioning (i. e. warm water aquatics) in treatment and rehabilitation settings. The therapist selects a twelve week leisure education program that includes social skills training components to meet the objectives outlined for the client. Leisure education focuses on the development and acquisition of leisure-related skills, attitudes, and knowledge so a person can express him/herself through leisure. Community recreation therapeutic recreation programs provide and ideal environment to apply leisure education goals by teaching how to access and utilize community recreation resources, as well as how to develop skills related to independent recreation functioning. The therapists forms goals, develops objectives, specifies activities (i. e. social skills) and determines a means of evaluation. According to Austin and Crawford (1996), the implementation phase of the therapeutic recreation process is the action phase and involves carrying-out the individual or group program plan. The therapeutic recreation specialist carries out the social skills and dance program, focusing on group and individual goals, For example, the group will be taught how to appropriately ask someone to dance and the client will be taught ways to initiate conversations with dance partner. The implementation phase involves coordinating and executing recreation activities proposed in the plan, as well as documenting information about the individual (i. e. his or her responses), the program (i. e. time of day, duration), and the activities (i. e. competitive vs.learning). Implementation of the individual plan in the recreation setting requires focusing to social (i. e. attitudinal), programmatic (i. e. adaptations), and environmental (i. e. accessibility) issues. For example, general recreation programs in which people with disabilities can be included may not be structured to accommodate people with a variety of disabilities. The therapists may implement numerous adaptations or accommodations according to the individual’s disability and have knowledge and skills to make these adaptations to facilitate participation. Other factors that could affect the implementation of the individual plan include inconsistent attendance of a participant with a disability, unanticipated facility/environmental issues, lack of support from family/caregivers, inconsistency of general recreation staff, and inappropriate program placement. The therapist conducts evaluations on the client’s skills at the end of the twelve week program by asking the same series of questions asked in the assessment phase and conducting an observation. The purpose of the evaluation phase is to assess the client’s response to the planned program and the plan’s effectiveness and determine whether revisions are necessary. While conduction the evaluation, the therapists can interview the participant, speak with family members or caregivers, review documentation, administer questionnaires, and observe the participant while engaged in the activity. Conducting a mid-term evaluation will aid in the clients process and help in necessary adjustments to a person’s program plan. Thorough and accurate documentation is a critical component of the evaluation process. An important concern with evaluative documentation in the settings is that the information is made available to others and is ultimately utilized. For example, at the conclusion of the leisure education program, the client may choose to enroll in a new program with different general or therapeutic recreation staff. Assessment and evaluation information should be passed on to the staff of the client’s new program to ensure continuity of goals and objectives. Applying the evaluation phase of the therapeutic recreation process in the therapeutic recreation settings can be advantageous in that information tracking can be done over a long period of time, enabling in-depth, longitudinal evaluations. However, a limitation of conducting the evaluation phase of the therapeutic recreation process I the settings is that pieces of information gathered at different points in time may become fragmented and not unified in one location. The therapist’s role is to compile the various evaluative elements into comprehensive evaluation document to be used across specialized and inclusive contests over time. RESOURCES Austin, D. R. , & Crawford, M. E. (1996). Therapeutic recreation: An introduction. (2nd ed. ). Boston: Allyn and Bacon. Howe-Murphy, R. , & Charboneau, B. (1987). Therapeutic recreation intervention: An ecological perspective. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, Inc. Sylvester, C. (Ed. ). (1996). Philosophy of therapeutic recreation: Issues and ideas. Volume II. Ashburn, VA: National Therapeutic Recreation Society Peterson, C. A. , & Gunn, S. L (1984). Therapeutic recreation program design: Principles and procedures. (2nd ed. ). Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall, Inc RECREATION EVALUATION RCSM 351 12/07/2010 PEGGY PEARSON.

Competency-based job analysis and the advantages and disadvantages of Assignment

Competency-based job analysis and the advantages and disadvantages of its use in team-based jobs - Assignment Example This paper demonstrates a critical review of literatures on competency-based job analysis and on merits and demerits of its use in team-based jobs. In management perspective, human capital represents commercially valuable talents, knowledge, experience and skills (Marcus, Ippolito and Zhang, 1998, p. 490). In order to ensure constant improvement in performance, most companies facilitated some techniques such as team-work, organizational learning, knowledge-sharing, training and development programs etc that can foster employees’ skills and abilities to perform better. In recent years, many companies have arranged an integrated system in which there is best possible fit of human resources and technical system that together produce superior employee performance (Noe, Hollenbeck and Gerhert, 2003). Recent changes in HR strategies and management initiatives prove that assessing and improving employees’ performance has become at the very heart of human resource management. In management, competency is a trait or a characteristic that an employee requires to perform his task. Competency is defined as a demonstrable characteristic such as knowledge, skills, behaviours etc that enable a person perform well (Byars and Rue, 2008, p.267). A competent employee is very likely to exhibit certain basic characteristics that are related to criterion referenced as effective as well as superior in terms of performance in a given job (Priyadarshini and Dave, 2012, p. 196). Competency based performance management is a system to consider skills and behaviours of employees for successful performance in the present and future job roles. It not only helps employees to understand job expectations, but also the management to design a framework for aligning employees’ job performance with organizational goals (David et al, 2000, p. 6). Kandula (2013, p. 289) stressed that competency-based performance

Corporate Social Responsibility - A code of ethics Essay

Corporate Social Responsibility - A code of ethics - Essay Example Over the past 3 years Bibbyoffshore have seen a exponential growth in their business, the company now operates 2 dive support vessels (DSV's) with a third due to come online in late 2007. The company is now of such a size that it is able to compete with the larger existing oil and gas service companies who have dominated the market over the past 15 years. As Bibbyoffshore desire to attract more complex, higher value contracts, certain client expectations, such as the way in which Bibbyoffshore view their responsibility to the environment and society, need to be met. This is reinforced by Bibbyline' own mission to maintain growth whilst operating within their core values of: This management report aims to investigate the relevance of a Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) Ethics strategy for Bibbyoffshore. Initially the development of CSR and Ethics within the Oil and Gas industry will be discussed followed by a short business case for a CSR strategy. A three year implementation strategy will be suggested along with a code of ethics and finally some concluding remarks. Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is the contribution of the business to the sustainable development goals of the Government. It is about how the business takes account of its economic, social and environmental impacts in the way it operates-maximizing the benefits and minimising the downsides. CSR is a voluntary actions that business can take, over and above compliance with minimum legal requirements, to address both its own competitive interests and the interests of wider society. (csr.gov.uk). Working within developing countries the oil and gas industry has the opportunity to be to be a positive force in generating the hard currency revenue that governments need to help reach national development goals. While a company is working in a country they invest and develop infrastructure, such as roads, that serve the community. This helps develop the economy of the country as supporting services such as material supply for roads is purchased within the country pouring funds into the economy. The oil and gas industry plays a key role in technology cooperation and capacity building. It means helping the host country to meet the basic needs such as infrastructure, health, education, training, job creation, and water supply. In order to

Protesting inequality - Harassment and protest in India Essay

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Project Management Analysis Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 7250 words

Project Management Analysis - Research Paper Example s such as Sony, EMI, Warner Music Group and universal lead to the foundation of the company which can provide original sound tracks with ease of access named as SPOTIFY (Catherine, 2012, p. 82). The SPOTIFY is a service that provides commercial music streaming with a class of copy protection technologies. The copy protection technology protects the content from the reproduction. SPOTIFY include the content from the record labels (Billboard, 2009, p. 24). The service facilitates the users from browsing or searching the music by categories such as artist, genre, record label or play list. SPOTIFY was developed by SPOTIFY AB in Stockholm Sweden, The founder of the company was Daniel Ek, who was a Swedish entrepreneur and a renowned technologist who came up with an idea of launching the services that can provide to its users ease of access to the world of music at high quality. The company was launched in 2006. The promotion of no piracy with original music was the main idea behind the p roject. SPOTIFY launched its application on 7th cot 2008. In order to manage the growth of the service, free account remained available. However, the paid subscription also began after the launch of the application (Billboard, 2009, p. 25). In November 2011, Spotify launched the mobile app named as SPOTIFY App. The app made it possible to for the developers such as third party developers to contribute towards a core technology of the internet, which can be used for structuring and presenting content for the World Wide Web. The core technology could be hosted within the desktop player of SPOTIFY (Anderson & Schwarz, 2013, p. 150). The mobile application could provide number of features such as synchronization of the lyrics, critical reviews regarding music and extremely long playlist (Kijima, 2014, p. 61). The formation of the SPOTIFY APP had one main objective: To create an internet based company that can provide easy access to millions of songs with customized demands while

The First Meditation Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

The First Meditation - Essay Example xperiences in order to decipher what is real and what is not and he theorises that the dreaming experiences he has been a manifestation of his waking experiences and that dreams cannot be formed without the latter. Descartes’ worry about not being able to distinguish between his waking and dreaming experiences can be a serious problem for scientific knowledge because there would be no means of making a distinction about what is true and what is false. The result of such a scenario is that a large number of scientific studies and thought, while being extremely popular in some schools, might turn out to be completely false. Moreover, the development of newer scientific theories would be much difficult since even the scientific thinkers will not be able to know whether their theories are based on reality or not. The result of Descartes’ worry would be that what are considered to be scientific facts might turn out to be the imagination of individuals and not based on realit y. Descartes speculates that perhaps an evil genius, or what he terms as a malignant demon, is the one who influences his dreams and makes him believe that what he sees in his dreams happened in reality. The evil genius works towards putting false images into his mind during his state of slumber and thus ensures that Descartes is unable to distinguish what is real from what is not and whether what he is dreaming actually took place in reality (Descartes 38). Therefore, Descartes is faced with two dilemmas, and one of these is whether life is based on foundations of falsehood and the other is whether life is influenced by an evil genius whose intention is to ensure that individuals are confused about reality and the dream experience. The result of these thoughts by Descartes is that he develops two different theories about reality and the foundation upon which it is built and whether there are other influences that might be at work in the formation of reality. The problem that is more d ifficult

Unit 6, Four Law Questions Article Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

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HRD Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

HRD - Research Paper Example In this relationship, rules are created and enforced to ensure smooth running of the organisation and its effectiveness. Different actors are involved in this process including employer, employee, trade unions, and the government or state. Such a relationship may be harmonious, conflictual or antagonistic depending on the context and ideologies. This forms the core of employment relations that this report will focus on. This is a report to the boss of a multinational mining company in Australia seeking to engage the services of skilled immigrant workers under Temporary Work (Skilled) (subclass 457) visas. Bill is a newly appointed ER manager at a multinational mining company in Australia. This is the first time he is working in the mining industry having prior experience in heavy engineering and utilities. The company is about to take over operations of an existing mine on a remote site in WA. However, many mining companies in Australia claim to be facing skill shortages and reduced competitiveness due to rising labour costs thus the problem is how to fill this skill gap. The most reasonable option is to source labour from local market but since this is not forthcoming, the option of immigrants is crucial. For a long time, Australia has been using the services of immigrants to fill skill gaps. These may be filled by permanent skilled immigrants, or temporary immigrants who include: holidaymakers, students and temporary (long stay) immigrants. Jakubowicz (2013) indicates that temporary business (long stay) visas were introduced by the Howard government in 1996. Prior to that Australia was not keen on employing immigrants but permanent skilled immigrants are considered Australian citizens hence appropriate to work in Australia under prevailing working conditions and labour laws. However, the option of temporary (long stay) visas has enabled Australia to

Arab Isreal Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Arab Isreal - Essay Example The roots of the conflict can be traced back to the late 19th century in which there was a rise in national movements, including Arab and Zionism nationalism. Zionism, a Jewish national movement, was seeking sanctuary when they sought to establish a Jewish State in Palestine (Seger, Tom, pp26). The mandate for Palestine was a historical League of Nations document. It contained the Jewish legal right of settling anywhere in western Palestine between the Mediterranean Sea and Jordan river. Palestine became a trouble spot of competing territorial claims and also political interest by the early years of the twentieth century. While World War one was underway the British high commissioner, Sir Henry of Egypt corresponded secretly with the patriarch of Hashemite family and governor of Mecca and Medina. He convinced them to lead an Arab revolt against the empire of Ottoman aligned with Germany against Britain and France with the promise of the establishment of an independent Arab state (Price, Randal, pp20). In 1921 the British divided Jordan into two: the Emirates of Transjordan and the Palestine Mandate. Arabs were angered by Britain’s failure to fulfill the creation of an independent Arab state. The situation was most complicated in Palestine because of the promise to support the creation of a Jewish national home by the British. The Palestine Arabs opposed the British Mandatory because it threatened their aspiration for self-rule. Moreover, the massive immigration of the Jews threatened their position in their country. Clashes broke out between the Arabs and the Jews in 1920 and 1921 whereby roughly equal numbers from the two communities got killed. The Jewish National Fund purchased large portions of land from the absentee Arab landowners leading to their eviction. The displacements led to increasing tensions and violence between the Arab peasant tenants and Jewish settlers (Haiduc-Dale, pp34). According to the

The Great Depression Essay Example for Free

The Great Depression Essay Tillie Olson’s semi-autobiographic story â€Å"I Stand Here Ironing† focuses on a mother’s reminiscing of the decisions she’s made regarding her first child, Emily, and the resulting impact those decisions had on her daughter. The mother, also the narrator, paints a picture of guilt, resentment, and remorse toward her choices while raising Emily. Throughout the story, there’s several instances that point to the mother possibly being a victim of postpartum depression. Emily. Although the consequences of the mother’s choices have already taken effect, she can’t help but to think about what she could have done or what Emily could be if she’d made the â€Å"right† decisions, as deemed by then society’s standards. The setting takes place during a time of struggle and hopelessness in the United States, the Great Depression of the 1930’s. The birth of Emily, in this trying time, made for a much needed contrast to the sense of despair in the air. â€Å"She was a beautiful baby. The first and only one of our five that was beautiful at birth (312).† Here, it’s apparent the joy that every first-time mother has. This effervescent sentiment only lasts for eight months, though, when Emily’s father abandons his family. For a young mother living in those times, that is devastating. Being a single-parent mother in the 1930’s was unheard of and extremely taboo. She’d be seen as an outcast and a failure to her family. In her mind, the only option was to leave Emily to her ex-husband’s family, in order to make a better living herself and her daughter. Upon Emily’s return, at the tender age of two, the mother hardly recognizes her and sees her in a new light. The baby who was once beautiful is no longer. â€Å"I hardly knew her [†¦] All the baby loveliness gone (313).† The culmination of separation, as well as the angst and disappointment that she felt for Emily’s father has taken effect and is now transferred to her daughter. Everything about Emily, from her appearance to her walk, now reminded the mother of her estranged husband. That very moment reveals the reason behind Emily’s jaded life postpartum depression. Postpartum depression is a mood disorder that begins after childbirth and usually lasts beyond six weeks. Occurring in 8%-20% of all new mothers, postpartum depressed women exhibit behavior that is neither healthy nor motherly, which in turn has an adverse effect on the child. These effects became more than apparent in Emily’s case. PPD would help to explain the narrator’s constant distancing herself from Emily and difference of treatment her daughter received compared to her other children. The narrator’s environment, economic standing, social status, and many other factors contributed to her developme nt of PPD. According to a study by Child Psychiatry and Human Development, children of postpartum depressed mothers have results showing a plethora of adverse outcomes relative to community sample children. Children whose mothers were diagnosed with PPD demonstrated lower ego-resiliency, lower peer social competence, and lower school adjustment (Doesum). These results heavily support the claim that the mother in â€Å"I Stand Here Ironing† had severe PPD in Emily’s early stages of life. The mother acknowledges her daughter’s social awkwardness in a passage from the story. I am glad for that slow physical development that widened the difference between her and her contemporaries, though she suffered over it. She was too vulnerable for that terrible word of youthful competition, of preening and parading, of constant measuring yourself against every other, of envy, â€Å"If I had that copper hair, â€Å"If I had that skin†¦.† She tormented herself enough about not looking like the others, there was enough of the unsureness, the having to be conscious of words before you speak, the constant caringwhat are they thinking of me? Without having it all magnified by the merciless physical drives. (316). In addition to these findings, girls of postpartum depressed mothers show lower verbal intelligence (Doesum). â€Å"School was a worry to her. She was not glib or quick in a world where glibness and quickness were easily confused with ability to learn (315).† Emily, during her teens substituted in for her step-father while he was away at war, acting as the second parent to her siblings. She had to grow up quick and even as a child, she didn’t have much of a childhood. The mother admits that Emily’s aiding her at home may have had an influence in her shortcomings in school, stating, â€Å"There was so little time left at night after the kids were bedded down. She would struggle over booksâ₠¬ ¦ (317).† Surprisingly, daughters of mothers who had PPD were also rated as less externalizing by their mothers than girls in the community sample. One of the interpretations of this result may be a tendency among girls of depressed mothers to show more role reversal or â€Å"parentification,† in an effort to fulfill the parent’s need for comfort and care. An example of this is when a young Emily was sent to nursery school. She gravely disliked the nursery but she never outright expressed it to her mother. She would come up with excuses such as the teachers being sick in order to persuade her mother to let her stay home. Emily would feel pain on the inside and never externalize it to the outside world. Regarding the other children, the mother always describes them in a positive light and shows favoritism toward them compared to when Emily was their age. With her second daughter, Susan, the mother always chalks up in a highly favored fashion. â€Å"[†¦] Susan, golden- and curly-haired and chubby, quick and articulate and assured, everything in manner and appearance Emily was not (316).† Susan exemplified what it was to be the â€Å"it† girl during those times with her appearance as â€Å"a chubby blonde replica of Shirley Temple.† This created a tense feeling of envy and jealousy within Emily, according to the narrator. Even during the story, the narrator interrupts her monologue to announce that her youngest child, Ronnie, needs his diaper changed. Afterwards, she and he â€Å"sit for a while and I hold him, looking out over the city spread in charcoal with its soft aisles of light (316).† This, a scene that would never be depicted during Emily’s childhood. The only mention of her at that age is depiction of the mother picking up Emily from the babysitter at nights which was always met with an outbreak of tears and weeping, â€Å"a weeping I can hear yet.† She’s always look at Emily w ith an expression of tightness and worry. â€Å"You should smile more at Emily when you look at her (313),† a neighbor once said to her mother. Her less than motherly attitude to Emily is further exposed when she reveals that she’d let Emily be absent but is noticeably stricter with her siblings’ school attendance. These conclusions support the idea that Emily’s mother at one time had severe postpartum depression. A mothers feeling of self-confidence and self-efficacy is determined by many different factors including contextual characteristics such as social support, infant temperament, and maternal mental health. Defined, maternal self-confidence is the mothers perception of her own ability to take care of the child and to correctly interpret the childs signals. It governs adjustment to motherhood and is of great importance with respect to a positive mother–infant relationship (Doesum). The mother makes it clear throughout her retelling of Emily’s past that she doesn’t view h erself as a very good mother. She internally expresses her frustration with the way she raised Emily and the choices she’d made. Of course, motherhood doesn’t come with a handbook but she could have done some things differently. Ever since she was eight months old, Emily had continuously been neglected. Her father left her as a baby and as a result, her mother sent her off to live with his family for a while. Then, she was placed with a babysitter and later on dropped off at a nursery, then to a convalescent home. The narrator not once referenced to Emily having a best friend or a child over to play, at an age where forming relationships with peers is crucial. Even at the convalescent home, Emily had made a bond with another child, until her friend was immediately placed in another home. The establishment wouldn’t let children keep the letter they received in the mail from parents and had strict rules for visitation. This so called â€Å"home† established an â€Å"invisible wall† so to speak between visiting parents and the children above on the balcony (Frye). â€Å"They don’t like you to love anybody here,† explains Emily (315). It represents a separation Emily would feel for the rest of her life. All her life, Emily has invariably been pushed to the side and abandoned by the people whom she thought loved her or at least had her well-being in mind. Because of this, she became a lonely, isolated child. Even through her gift of mime, performing for high schools and colleges, Emily still felt isolated and alone. High levels of stress, low quality mother–infant interactions and insecure attachment early in a child’s life can adversely affect the development of the brain, which can have long-term consequences, for example for the child’s capacities to regulate emotions and cope with stress. Whenever Emily’s mother went out with her step-father, she couldn’t take it. She would open the door, thinking it might make her mother come back sooner and place the clock on the floor, claiming the clock â €Å"talked loud.† The clock is just one of many symbols in the story, representing the time mother and daughter never spent together and the separation between the two. The narrator is convinced that Emily is â€Å"[†¦] a child of her age, of depression, of war, of fear (318). As she reflects on her daughter’s life, she feels resentment, angst, and guilt yet she doesn’t let this consume her. She still has faith that her daughter will lead a different path and not have to go through the same painful struggles she faced as a lonely, 19-year-old, single mother during the Depression. Hardships turned her into what she is today, a strong and mature woman which is apparent due to her unbiased analysis of what she could have done better while raising Emily. The mother always heeded the advice of others and never herself as a first-time mother, always looking for validation through outside externalities. She corrected these mistakes with her subsequent children but by the time she realized it for Emily, it was too late. The damage has already been done. Although she may forever be reluctantly under the power of the iron, she wants Emily to be persuaded â€Å"[†¦] that she is more than this dress on the ironing board, helpless before the iron.† She has the capability to make something of herself, regardless of the way she grew up. Emily, at 19, has more opportunities than her mother had at the same age. That slight tinge of hope leads readers to interpret their own future for Emily, which she jokingly hints to through her budding talent for comedy by inferring that the human race will be atom-dead in a few years. She has a strong resource with her talent for pantomime that hopefully will foster as she grows older and gives her a chance to see what life is like outside of poverty. Emily is a survivor, through it all and has the ability and capacity to take life by the reigns, if she so chooses (Yahnke). Bibliography Doesum, Karin T. M., et al. Early School Outcomes for Children of Postpartum Depressed Mothers: Comparison with a Community Sample. Child Psychiatry and Human Development43.2 (2012): 201+. Academic OneFile. Web. 30 Apr. 2012. Frye, Joanne S. â€Å"I Stand Here Ironing’: Motherhood as Experience and Metaphor.† Studies in Short Fiction 18.3 (Summer 1981): 272-292. Rpt. in Short Story Criticism. Ed David L. Siegel Vol 11. Detroit: Gale Research, 1992. Literature Resource Center. Web 19 Mar 2012. Gerstenlauer, Jakob, et al. Effects of Postpartum Anxiety Disorders and Depression on Maternal Self-confidence. Infant Behavior and Development 35.2 (2012): 264+. Academic OneFile. Web. 30 Apr. 2012. Olsen, Tillie. â€Å"I Stand Here Ironing.† 1953. Portable Legacies 4th Edition. Schmidt, Jan, and Lynne Crockett, editors. Boston: Wadsworth Cengage Learning, 2009. 312-318. Yahnke, Robert E. Magill. â€Å"I Stand Here Ironing† Robert E. Magill’s Survey of American Literature, Revised Edition, September 2006, p1-1 Short Fiction (Work Analysis). Literary Reference Center. Web. 28 Mar 2012.

Marxism Global Political Economy

Marxism Global Political Economy This paper is aimed at addressing and evaluating the theoretical perspectives of Liberal and Marxist ideas, as well as investigating their theoretical perspectives in relation to International Political Economy (IPE). Researchers studying IPE use a variety of theories for different purposes, such as predicting the stability of economical situations, or predicting economical growth of a state among others. Other political and economical analysts argue that valid predictions are almost impossible because there are too many factors that may have particular influence on the events. Nevertheless, all these people utilize their theoretical knowledge in attempt to get an understanding of the world. However, it is worth questioning the reason for such rich variety of theories being out there. According to Robert Cox (1986), there are two reasons: Theory always has a goal and serves the interests of particular people. For example, the goals of liberal theories are concerned with establishing cooperation and increasing capital, while critical theories (also labelled Marxist) are focused on removing the economic, gender or environmental differences within the society. Both Liberal theories have emerged in the 19th century in Britain during the period of industrial revolution in response to monarchical absolutism. Later in 19th century, Marxism has emerged as a response to the liberal thought. Wealthier states and individuals tend to favour liberal theories, which are in line with their interests and do not threaten their comfort, while those who are less satisfied with their socioeconomic position tend to adopt the critical theories point of view. It is worth noting that it is difficult and almost impossible to prove a theory right or wrong, therefore, evidence can be interpreted in different ways depending on ones goals and views (OBrien Williams, 2007). Therefore different conflicting theoretical perspectives, such as Marxism and Liberalism, have developed. Marxists an d Liberalist mainly differ in their views about the role of individual and role of state in IPE (Raico, 1992). Liberals are concerned about variety of actors ranging from a single individual to particular interest groups, firms and corporations, to state. Nevertheless, liberals starting point for analytical evaluation is the individuals needs; this idea is at the core of neoclassical economic theory. Therefore, liberals look at behaviour of states, firms and individuals in order to analyze global economy, while keeping in mind that the individual is the main actor. The idea is that individuals in their pursuit of self-profit within the competitive environment will benefit and therefore will increase the benefits economic exchange for the masses. Companies and firms play a very important role for the liberals, as they are perceived as a source of economic expenditure and wealth (Jackson Sorensen, 2003). As mentioned above, they believe that state cannot stand as a single actor, due to the idea that it is being influenced by many different factors. Liberals express negativity towards state, si nce they believe that politics should not get involved into the economics. They also, believe that if the market will be free of political influence, which is seen as the force that is distorting the benefits while producing additional costs to the market participants, and will not interfere with the consumption, production and exchange mechanisms then everyone will benefit. Economic liberalists Friedrich Hayeks (1992) slogan laissez-faire is a good example of the liberal view in relation the state. Pluralist (liberal) approach suggests that cooperation is the key and the way forward where people and states can benefit, opposed to the conflict suggested by class-analytic (Marxist) approach. They argue that conflicts should be avoided, and a peaceful resolution should be found through the course of action and agreement of sides that will benefit both, as in liberal view, the world political and economical mechanisms are interdependent rather than anarchical (Connell, 1995). Transnati onal Corporations (TNCs) are believed to benefit both host and home countries, where it boosts economies of host states by means of transfer of capital, access to market, and technology, as well as benefiting the home country where TNC is seen as a mix of capital management skills and technology. Such perspective is referred to as positive-sum game and the idea is that by means of cooperation everyone benefits and prospers. Liberal theorists highlight the fact that in their view the market is located in the centre of economic life and economic progress, which occurs because individuals are pursuing their goals. A liberal theory of comparative advantage suggests that even if one country is producing more goods than another country, trade between the two countries will benefit both. This view is opposed to Marxist theory of zero-sum game, which claims that in order for one to gain the other has to lose. Famous Liberal Political Economists, such as David Ricardo and Adam Smith advocate d state non-interference in free trade and economy. Various well-known slogans have emerged during that period, such as laissez faire (the doctrine of unrestricted freedom in commerce) and mà Ã‚ ¾ndà Ã‚ µ và Ã‚ ° de lui-mà Ã‚ µmà Ã‚ µ (the world goà Ã‚ µs by itself) (Raico, 1977). Contemporary global political economy is mostly being governed according to the principles of liberal ideology. Most forms of economic activity are functioning according to the liberal rules and policy regulations and are based on the goal of free trade. It is evident that nowadays money flows almost freely in and out of countries via stock markets, banks, and big financial corporations. Nowadays liberalism cannot be described with a unitary definition, as different liberal movements have deviated from the core theoretical ideology of liberalism to certain degree thus producing neo-liberal theories that are somewhat different from the ones described by founding fathers of liberalism. It is worth remembering Fukuyamas (1989) work and his speculative prophesy of the end of history, where he argued that liberalism is about to become an only ideology of upmost significance thus ceasing the conflict between the theorists of global political economy. Despite Fukuyamas statement, today, aft er 22 years China one of the most developed economies in the world is still a communist state, as well as few other countries. Nevertheless, most of the countries in the world are dominated by private businesses and corporations with some involvement of the state, as described by Keohane (2002). Liberals suggest that open markets will produce more wealth and will aid economies expenditure around the globe benefiting the humanity. Economic failure is believed to be triggered by the disruptions caused from involvement of the state into the economy. Therefore, liberals are promoting globalization, which they perceive as a force of good that removes artificial boundaries and facilitates growth of production thus contributing to overall wealth of the society (Helleiner, 2003). A set of critical theories have emerged in response to growing popularity of liberalism in 19th century. Unlike liberalists who are looking at individuals and states, these theorists are looking at other units of analysis. The main units of analysis in Marxist theories are class and interest of working class rather than state. Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels are the founding fathers of this political movement and the ones that unleashed the conflict between capitalists and workers. Resolution of this conflict was possible only if workers seized power (Marx and Engels, 1848). Marxist writers reject the significance of the individuals of liberal theory, and focus on the significance of the class instead. Marxists perceive capitalist relations being inherently exploitative (Raico, 1992). There has been a lot of debate in relation to definition of class in the literature; therefore, in this paper class is defined according to OBrien and Williams (2007) as à Ã‚ °rising from à Ã‚ ¾nà   µs pà Ã‚ ¾sitià Ã‚ ¾n in the structurà Ã‚ µ of prà Ã‚ ¾ductià Ã‚ ¾n. Karl Marx himself seen the society as a multi-layered cake, with the bourgeoisie (capitalists) sitting on top, owning and controlling the means of production, and proletariat (workers), who sell their labour to the capitalists as a bottom layer of the cake. Therefore, Marxist followers suggest that the firm and the capitalistic regime itself are exploitative and unfair in relation to working class. Marxists see transnational corporations (TNCs) as tools of oppression and exploitation of the working class, because of their power to centralize and concentrate capital, while expressing the dominance, which is the key feature of imperialism (monarchy). Such perspective suggests the state is representative of class interests and not the communal interests. In this respect, the state has a role of executive committee of the ruling class and sometimes referred to as an independent agent of exploitation by som e Marxist writers (Conway, 1987). This idea of exploitation and dominance among the societies and within them is central to Marxist theories global political economy. According to class-analytic approach to global economy, under capitalism workers are not fairly rewarded for their labour, economic relations are being conflicting and unstable. Meaning, that consequently, the rich will become richer and the poor will become poorer and the gap between the bourgeoisie and the proletariat will continue to increase (Gilbert, 2008). Such economical relations are believed to lead to decrease in wages of labourers, uneven development, as some centres increase their capital and growth at the expense of others, which in its turn leads to conflicts between countries, as well as insufficient consumption and overproduction thus affecting social stability and producing fluctuations in the business sector (OBrien and Williams, 2007). For example, dependency theory suggests that poor countries have faced barriers to further development as the consequence of being economically exploited by developed countries (Dos Santos, 1970). This refers to a zero-sum game described above. Therefore, the conflict between states is unavoidable because of the drive for profit. Consequently, liberals seek protection of their state, which in turn leads to conflict and war. For example, the famous Marxist theory about imperialism written by Vladimir Lenin (1917/1969) encapsulates two explanations of capitalist development. First part of his theory is concerned with growth of financial capital and the coalition of industrial capital and finance to form monopolies that sought to produce profit by means of overseas lending. The second part of Lenins theory is concerned about insufficient consumption in domestic market. Insufficient demand on domestic markets has forced capitalists to enter foreign markets due to inability to maintain their profit rates. Such perspective have lead Lenin to a conclusi on that such competition would inevitably lead to conflict and consequently to war. Marxists also tend to argue against globalization, which in their view represents an ideological intervention into global economy, which acts in support of free markets as well as a tool used to pursue interests of the capitalist power over labourers. Some researchers argued, that globalization facilitated by the neoliberal political movements is an instrument of global management and liberalization and is based on misinformation and deception of the masses (Cox, 1996; Gill, 1993). Another clash between the ideologies has occurred in the 21th century, when members of world elites have tried to alter constitutional laws in favour of neoliberal principles in various institutions, including International Monetary Fund and World Trade Organization. Neoliberals met the opposition of social political movements trying to protect environmental policy, raise work standards, and facilitate gender equity and seek economic justice (OBrien and Williams, 2007). According to economic liberals, market economy is the way to prosperity for all, and should be run according to its own economic laws without the interference of the state. Global market economy is a sphere described by a positive-sum game model, which advocates that economic exchange will maximise profits of firms, individuals and households, and consequently all members of society will benefit from it. Marxists see the economy as an instrument of exploitation of lower social classes (workers); these interactions are highlighted by the inequalities between proletariat and bourgeoisie. Critical theories advocate, the political strategies are being determined by socioeconomic context. The class that exercises economical power also controls the political power of the state. Marxists believe that capitalist development is uneven and is bound to produce conflicts between states and individuals. Global Political Economy can be defined as the relationship between states and markets on an international scale. Research of this relationship has given birth to conflicting Marxist and Liberal theories discussed in this paper. As it was already mentioned above, each theory serves the interests of particular groups of people with particular goals, and unless the major part of the international political society will come to some sort of an agreement and find a way to cooperate, conflicts will always emerge, and conflicts will always result in losses for someone.

Causes and Effects of Growing Terrorism

Causes and Effects of Growing Terrorism Chapter 1 Introduction The Threat from Terrorism There are very few humans in the world today who have not had their lives altered or affected in some way through terrorist acts or the threat from terrorism. The highly publicized terrorist attacks in the United States, London, Madrid, and Mumbai were seen worldwide and have lead to sweeping changes in the security postures of many western and developed nations, as well as to a multi-nation war in Afghanistan. For those that have not felt the direct effects by losing someone close to them, there are many life altering after-shocks have had global reach and thus have effected nearly everyone. Every person who uses public transportation, rides in a plane/train, or crosses an international border will feel the effects of international terrorism through vastly increased security measures. Terrorism has changed foreign policy for many nations and has lead to wars.[1] In all, terrorism is rewriting the geopolitical map as we see it now and in the decades to come, will continue to change t he world as we know it. Radical Militant Islamic Groups There are many religions and political factions that have terrorist cells. In fact, in this day and age, one would be hard pressed to find a country or religion that does not have some form of fundamental or radicalized terrorist group in its midst. Groups espousing terror find roots in Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Buddhism and Hinduism.[2] This being said, in recent times, the most dangerous threat to western and developed nations comes from the Radical Militant Islamic Groups. These Islamic Militants have not only local and national reach, but can project their influence regionally and even globally (as seen with Al Qaeda and Hezbollah), and thus will be the focus of this dissertation. Shifting Sands: Since as far back as history dates, there has been war between peoples. Sometimes these peoples were evenly matched, and the battles pitted large armies against one another. Yet at other times, the odds were heavily in favor of one side, and the lesser of these groups had to resort to non-traditional warfare to inflict losses on their enemy. Sometimes these attacks were focused on the enemys military, and sometimes these attacks were focused on the citizenry of the enemy nation. The enemies could be nation vs nation or sometimes they were nation vs a non-state actor group. The pendulum has swung back and forth throughout history as to what is the root of terrorist groups. With the emergence of Al Qaeda we have seen that in the present day the non-state actor terrorist groups have taken center stage, though this may be about to change. Attempt to predict the future This paper engages the probability of predicting the future of global terrorism. This is achieved by analyzing the history of the origins and conceptual changes of terrorism over years past and current trends of terrorism as seen through the data available from the terrorism scholars of today. Though terrorism is not a completely Islamic phenomena, this paper will focus on terrorism from Radical Militant Islamic Groups, as this is the most predominant form of terrorism seen in the present day. It will attempt to lay out the evolution of terrorism to give some basis for a review of the current most important trends in terrorism. It will discuss the origins of ethno-nationalist (or state sponsored) terrorism and further discuss how this has morphed into the new transnational (or non-state actor) terrorism of today. Finally the paper will set the stage for the prediction of a future shift back to state sponsored terrorism and outline the reasons why this is going to occur. Chapter II Evolution of Terrorism – Historical Roots Mr. Speaker, I agree with those who say that the Global War  on Terrorism is actually a Global War of Ideas and that  terrorism is one of the tactics used in that War. Mac Thornberry (US Congressman) P re-Modern World: 1st Century BC to the 13th Century The history of [6] 1793: The Origins of Modern Terrorism In 1793, following the French revolution, Maximilien Robespierre instigated a reign of terror on those who opposed the French revolution.[7] This reign of terror is conventionally known as the birthplace of the word Terrorism.[9] Robespierres sentiment is the keystone in the beliefs of many modern terrorists, who consider violence the best and most efficient way to get to their desired outcome. As decades passed, the categorization of terrorism as a state action has blurred, as the idea of terrorism as an attack against an existing political order became more prominent. 1950s: The Rise of Non-State Terrorism Terrorism in the 1950s got its start from the guerilla warfare tactics popular with many insurgent groups of the time. This rise of guerrilla tactics by non-state actors in the last half of the twentieth century was due to several factors. These included the blossoming of ethnic nationalism (e.g. Irish, Basque, Zionist), anti-colonial sentiments in the vast British, French and Dutch empires, and new ideologies such as communism. In near recent times, terrorist groups with nationalist agendas have sprung up in every part of the world. For example, the Irish Republican Army grew from the desire of Irish Catholics to form an independent republic, and break their ties with Great Britain.[10] Similarly, the Kurds, a distinct ethnic and linguistic group in Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq, have sought national autonomy since the beginning of the 20th Century.[13] 1970s: The International Turn of Terrorism International terrorism came to the forefront as a prominent issue in the late 1960s, when hijacking of large airliners became a favored tactic. In 1968, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine became the first group to hijack an aircraft.[18] 1990s: 21 st Century: The Rise of Religious Terrorism Though an argument can be made that the rise of religiously motivated terrorism got its modern day start in Iran and Afghanistan to counter the political issues of the Shah and the Soviet Union, it came to the forefront with many highly visible violent acts committed during the 1990s. Groups that justify their violence on Islamic grounds Al Qaeda, Hamas, and Hezbollah come to mind first. But Christianity, Judaism, Hinduism and other religions have given rise to their own forms of militant extremism.[19] In recent years RMIGs have taken center stage for their astoundingly violent acts perpetrated against the citizenry of non-Muslim cultures. Chapter III Trends in Terrorism When you give religiously inspired zealots weapons of mass destruction and you promise them that if they kill innocent people they will go to heaven, imagine what the consequences are. Major Changes are Ahead There are major changes coming to terrorism in the years ahead. These changes can be seen from the trends of today, and will deeply change the threat to marked nations by terrorists and the terms on which we must fight the war against RMIGs. The top trends that will influence the changes in Terrorism Globally are summarized below. Fertility rates will lead Western Countries to come under Islamic rule In contrast to the developing world, many industrialized countries are currently, or will soon, see fertility rates below the replacement level and hence significant declines in populations, excluding the effects of immigration[22] Militant Islam continues to grow in both membership and power It has been clear for years that many Islamic nations face severe problems with religious extremists who are dedicated to advancing their political, social, and ideological views by any means necessary.[23] Nearly all of the Muslim lands are overcrowded and short of resources. Many are poor, save for the oil-rich states of the Middle East.[27] The Terrorist Ranks Are Growing The post 9/11 invasion of Afghanistan that lead to the unseating of the Taliban regime deprived Al Qaeda of a safe haven, striking a major blow against the global terrorist movement, yet by not following up effectively on that initial success, a great deal of benefit that could have been solidified was squandered. Additionally, with the invasion of Iraq, Al Qaeda and its sympathizers now have new grounds from which they can unite their members and, more importantly, recruit new ones.[32] At the heart of the Middle East fundamentalist movement are the wahabists of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has recently been forced to enact a program designed to keep Muslim men from going to Iraq to wage war against the coalition forces in a global jihad.[35] In this way, the foundation for terrorist cells are built which are independent of Al Qaeda but resolutely committed to the same objectives. Examples of this have been seen in the Madrid railway bombings which were carried out by Al Qaeda inspired Moroccan terrorist cell who were motivated by the Iraq invasion.[39] It is clear that RMIGs have significant sympathy among Europes Muslim population. The French riots of October and November 2005 affected at least twenty cities in that country, resulting in 2,888 arrests, leading to a further spill over of violence in Greece, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, and Switzerland.[40] It has been proven that Saudi Arabia continues to fund and maintain connections with a broad group of religious schools, stretching from Pakistan to New York, and from the Philippines to India.[44] Individuals from Europe and the Middle East are embracing the extremist teachings, traveling to Afghanistan, Kashmir and Iraq to fight, and returning to their own countries, with the rights of western citizens to carry the fight against the very nations they were born to. RMIGs Will Gain Access to Weapons of Mass Destruction It must be assumed that tomorrows terrorists will make every effort to ensure that they have more than unconventional amounts of conventional explosives with which to make their violent point.[46] Pakistan represents by far the greatest opportunity for would-be nuclear terrorists to become nuclear terrorists. If Muslim extremists cannot gain access to stolen weapons from the former Soviet Republics, Islamabad may be their provider. Thankfully, this seems not to be a guarantee that terrorists will use nuclear weapons against the potential western targets. RMIGs will most likely receive large, hard to conceal, low-yield devices that will be difficult to smuggle to their target. Though one can be certain that terrorist organizations will try anyway, other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) look to be a much more likely option. Clouds of toxic gas or incompletely weaponized bacteria could find their way into New York City, London or Paris. Even more likely is the chemical weapon threat. As the Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo, demonstrated in a Tokyo subway in 1995, chemical weapons are available to essentially anyone who wants them badly enough to put in a modest effort to make or buy them.[47] The Home Grown threat from Muslim extremists is on the rise A 1994 terrorism study by the US Department of Defense predicted that by 2020 a majority of the worlds most important Muslim lands could be controlled by extremist religious governments.[52] Beyond that, for the first time, an Islamic country, Pakistan, has nuclear weapons. As previously mentioned, Islamic extremists view this technology as an Islamic bomb that could be used to promote their apocalyptic ideology, making nuclear terrorism a realistic threat. This threat will grow as Iraq, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries establish fundamentalist regimes that are willing to back the cause of jihad against the West. Saudi Arabia is well on the path to be taken over by a fundamentalist regime, and to attempt to postpone this, the Saud family will continue to provide more support to extremists and endeavor to direct the RMIGs attention to the West.[53] The overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq have strengthened the global jihadist movement, given them a training ground and built up the contacts for future terrorist acts. The gap between the Haves and the Have Nots will continue to increase The growing gap in wealth between the rich and poor countries looks as if it will further destabilize the world order, continuing to encourage prospective RMIGs in the less developed nations to foment violence against the rich in their own countries, or when available against western targets. This rising gap in wealth within many prosperous nations has the possibility to set off discontent among the less well-off, possibly helping to inspire random violence and acts of domestic terrorism in the West. The growing gap in wealth and income between the rich and the poor also may inspire conversion to Islam in the West, principally among the underprivileged. As seen in England and Australia, this can be a source of violent extremism among both immigrant and native populations.[54] Population growth is highest in those countries least able to support the growth The greatest fertility rates are found in those countries least able to support their existing populations: the largest population increases projected between 2000 and 2050 include the Palestinian Territory (217 percent), Niger (205 percent), Yemen (168 percent), Angola (162 percent), the Democratic Republic of Congo (161 percent), and Uganda (133 percent).[55] The Muslim world is reproducing at an extremely high rate, with fertility rates of 7.5 in Afghanistan, 6.0 in Yemen, and 4.9 in Iraq.[57] Even these estimates appear to be on the low side. According to CSIS, most official projections underestimate both the fertility rates and age of mortality, as well as making the assumption that life expectancy will grow more slowly in the future, which seems unlikely as world healthcare only continues to get better. Growing Western prosperity relative to other countries with rapidly growing populations and overburdened economies will continue to make the developed nations a target for terrorism. Shortages of food could help to motivate extremism unless the industrialized nations make a determined, visible effort to provide for the worlds poor. (Food production in the next 40 years will need to be significantly higher then ever before in the worlds history to keep the exploding world population from starvation).[58] Urbanization, will continue to increase rapidly According to the Population Reference Bureaus 2006 World Population Data Sheet, Forty-eight percent of the worlds population currently lives in cities. By 2030 that figure is expected to grow to 60 percent, as approximately 2.1 billion more people move to the worlds urban centers.[59] In industrialized nations, on average, more than three-fourths of the population lives in urban areas (urban areas are defined differently for each country).[62] Right now, there are billions of people who live in urban areas who lack adequate clean water, shelter, toilets and hygiene areas, and/or electricity.[63] The problems this raises with reference to crime, violence, and religious extremism is readily apparent. Concentrating the poor, oppressed and powerless in large cloistered urban centers produces conditions ideal for the spread of crime and the type of religious extremism that lends itself to violent ideologies. Chapter IV Old Terrorism Any government that supports, protects or harbours terrorists is complicit in the murder of the innocent and equally guilty of terrorist crimes. George W. Bush Old Terrorism – Ethno -nationalist or Ideological, and state sponsored What are the differences between the legitimate tactics used by authorities in the quelling or defence of terrorism, and terrorism itself? Nations at times will use violence to control or manipulate parts of their populace, or use intimidation to get what they desire.[67] A government that is an adversary of Country B may apply terror tactics in an effort to make up for real or perceived inadequacies in conventional warfare capabilities. Repression through terror of the indigenous population of their own country may occur to stop the dissent or violent uprising inside the country that Country B might exploit. Special Operations forces, paramilitary forces and state intelligence assets could conduct terrorist operations against Country B interests both inter-regionally and as far outside the countries borders as the abilities of their external security apparatus will allow to destabilize Country B and bring desired visibility to the sponsoring governments issues. Finally, attacks on Country B on their home soil may be conducted by RMIGs of the state or by other domestic proxies.[68] This is being seen today in Iraq with the Iranian involvement to destabilize Iraq and kill coalition servicemen, as well as Pakistans efforts to destabilize the Jammu and K ashmir region of India. Forms of State Terror Governmental or State terror State involvement in terror State sponsorship of terrorism Turning a blind eye to the harboring/funding of terror groups in their borders[69] Governmental or State terror Governmental or State terror is normally seen when a regime uses threats or outright terror to its own populace to exert power over or suppress them.[73] These weapons were not used against the majority Muslim population in the southern 2/3 of Iraq, where he accomplished his goals using conventional state terror methods. State involvement in terror State involvement in terror includes the activities where government personnel perform operations using terror tactics that are directed against other nations interests, individuals or private groups that have opposing or controversial opinions/actions viewed as counter to that of the state. In essence, it is governmentally authorized terrorism, though these sanctions hardly ever come to public light. Some past examples of this governmentally authorized terrorism are the assassination include the Soviet and Iranian assassination operations aimed at state dissidents who moved abroad for fear of their lives. Additionally, the targeting and destroying (through a covert bombing campaign carried out by Libyan and North Korean intelligence officers) of international airliners was another past example of this form of terrorism.[75] A further form of state involvement in terror is pro-state terror. This is a terror campaign carried out by small groups or individual people who have no authorized status in the system. These type of attacks generally are lacking in official support as well. Pro-state terror may have the end result of a desired outcome which the government wants. In these cases, with official use of violent crime tacitly supported by the authorities, even though the groups or individuals have gone outside the rule of punishment of the terrorists is rare. State sponsorship of terrorism State sponsorship of terrorism, also referred to as state supported terrorism, represents a situation when non-state terrorist organizations are trained, equipped and operationalized by an authorized national governmental agency. A very productive aspects of this support is the providing of safe havens for terrorists organizations.[78] Examples of state sponsorship of terrorism are the overt support by the government of Syria to Hamas as well as Lebanons overt support and backing of Hezbollah. Syrian funding and the providing of safe havens facilitate many training areas in the Beka Valley territory.[81] Chapter V New Terrorism Terrorism is carried out purposefully, in a cold-blooded, calculated fashion. The declared goals of the terrorist may change from place to place. He supposedly fig problems his only solution is the demolition of the whole structure of society. No partial solution, not even the total redressing of the grievance he complains of, will satisfy him until our social system is destroyed or delivered into his hands. BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, International Terrorism New Terrorism – Transnational or Global Jihadism The first efforts to describe a new form of terrorism began to occur in the 1990s, when scholars of terrorism attempted to make sense of a phenomenon they were seeing that did not fit into the previous model of terrorism in the 1970s and 1980s. Attacks such as that of the religious cult Aum Shinrikyo did not make sense without a reconsideration of the old model. In reality, the term new terrorism truly came into its own only after the September 11, 2001 attacks.[82] In a short comparative of the new and old terrorism, it has been stated that: * The new terrorism is justified on religious and apocalyptic grounds, while the old terrorism was rooted in political ideology.[83] * The new terrorism aims at destruction as an end in itself, while the old terrorism used violent destruction as a means to a political end;[84] * The new terrorism is organizationally distinct from the old terrorism. It is hierarchical (has many equally authoritative points of leadership) and horizontal, rather than hierarchical and vertical; it is decentralized rather than centralized;[85] * The new terrorism aims at as much destruction as possible, whether through devastating forms of weaponry or techniques such as suicide terrorism, whereas the old terrorism sought to create a dramatic spectacle with as little damage as possible;[86] More recently, those who write about new terrorism have focused on a perceived new threat of mass casualties caused by chemical, biological or other agents.[89] On the counter point, when one looks holistically and historically at Terrorism, there seems to be no old or new terrorism, just a Darwinistic evolution of violence for political purposes. Even Martha Crenshaw, the noted terrorism expert who is a staunch advocate against the use of the term New Terrorism states the following in comparing and contrasting the goals, methods, and organization of New and Old Terrorism: Goals The new terrorism model assumes uniformly that religion, primarily of those groups with millennial and apocalyptic ideologies, is the main precipitating factor. The new terrorists are said to have ambiguous goals on the systemic level and to value destruction for its own sake (i.e., the means are the ends). By contrast, the old terrorism is seen as comprehensible, limited, more specific, and often tied to territory – thus making the grievance more susceptible to negotiation. How well does the new terrorism model fit the historical record? Crenshaw observes that the religion behind various groups (e.g., Aum Shinrikyo versus Al Qaeda) differs, as do their goals (i.e., local or global). She also notes that some of the old terrorist groups (e.g., the 19th century anarchists and the Red Army Faction) had broad, transnational goals.[90] Means According to the new terrorism model, groups seek to kill as many people as possible and are particularly drawn to weapons of mass destruction, whereas the old terrorism approach assumed that the groups were limited in their means as well as goals. Crenshaw acknowledged that the new terrorism model best fits with respect to this criterion. [91] Organization and structure The new terrorists are decentralized and networked, are inspiration-driven, and often include amateurs. By contrast, the old terrorists are centralized, top-down, professional organizations that are often state sponsored. The new terrorism distinction only partly meets this criterion as many of the old terrorist groups, such as the Red Army faction, were not so monolithic. The bottom line seems to lend itself to seeing terrorism as not new in kind, but in degree and structure.[92] The new terror groups of today (Al Qaeda being the most well known) center mainly around religion as a core for recruitment and promulgation of ideology. Islam is the religion of choice and has found a massive following in Middle Eastern Arab Muslims, especially the Wahabists of Saudi Arabia, but the splinter groups, or those groups loosely associated, have worldwide reach.[93] These organizations differ significantly from more traditional terrorist organizations of past decades. The groups of today do not depend on the sponsorship of a political state, and, unlike the PLO or the IRA, they are not defined by a particular conflict. Instead, these groups operate analogous to the businesses McDonalds or Starbucks. Al Qaeda is the franchise owner, providing financial and logistical support, as well as name recognition, to local, regional and transnational terrorist groups operating in such diverse places as the Philippines, Algeria, Eritrea, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Tajikistan, Somalia, Ye men, and Kashmir. Local groups may carry out acts in the name of al-Qaeda in order to bolster their own reputation—even if they are not receiving support from the organization. This is possible because the ideology that al Qaeda has developed and promulgated focuses their concepts to stress a few main tenants to ensure the survival and spread of the movement. Ensuring the perpetuity of the fight.[94] Obeying the individual obligation to fight Islams enemies regardless of the apparent outcome of battle[95] Institutionalizing a culture of martyrdom[96] Pinpointing Islams enemies through the refining process of jihad, and thus maintaining its identity[97] Establishing pride, brotherhood, and unity in the face of threats to the ummah[98] Creating a parity of suffering with Islams enemies—especially the Jews and Crusaders[99] Victory is seen in the maladies afflicting Gods enemies, especially economic recession and natural disasters[100] Observing miracles and dreams in jihad, which foretell of divine guidance and ultimate victory for the mujahedeen[101] As long as groups follow these main tenants, and focus their violence against the common enemy, then they are supporting the common cause. Due to this, Scott Atran argues that it is not religion, but group dynamics based off of social needs that fuels the Global Jihadist movement but small-group dynamics involving friends and family that form the diaspora cell of brotherhood and camaraderie on which the rising tide of martyrdom actions is based.[102] As mentioned by Crenshaw above, one of the main improvements of New terrorism is that of decentralized execution of actions that may or may not have been planned by some higher authority. As stated in the United States Air Force Defense Doctrine publication 1, Decentralized execution is, the delegation of execution authority to responsible and capable lower-level commanders to achieve effective span of control and to foster disciplined initiative, situational responsiveness, and tactical flexibility.[103] Chapter VI New Old Terrorism In todays wars, there are no morals. We believe the worst thieves in the world today and the worst terrorists are the Americans. We do not have to differentiate between military or civilian. As far as we are concerned, they are all targets. Osama Bin Laden Time magazine profile (16 September 2001) The Pendulum Swings Back For better or worse (and this author believes it is worsemuch worse) the pendulum is swinging back in the direction of state sponsored terrorism. For nations like Pakistan and Iran, the pendulum never moved, as these countries have been manning, training, equipping, and operationalizing terrorist groups for decades.[108] Iran has consistently been described by the United States as the worlds foremost state sponsor of terrorism. It actively supports terrorist groups, most prominently the Lebanese group Hezbollah.[115]. Iran and Hezbollah Hezbollah, a radical Shiite militia based in Lebanon, is a direct product of funding and training by Irans IRGC (QF). It was formally established in 1982 following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, aimed at uprooting the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) bases there.[119] RMIG takeover of Islamic Nations For other nations that have not been wholly engaged in state sponsored terrorism, there are growing dangers as well. There are two types of new and developing state sponsored terrorism which may very soon roll a number of these nations into the terrorist state fold. The first one, unfortunately, we are all familiar with, as the most accurate example being the Al Qaeda infiltration of Afghanistan. After the Soviet Union finally withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989 the communist Afghani government hung on for three more years, and then was finally overrun by RMIGs.[121] These services and practical, day-to-day contributions to the lives of ordinary citizens will provide a legitimacy and underpinning for future political activities by terrorist organizations. This RMIG sponsored ground root social support, combined with the reality that in almost every country in the Muslim world, western focused terrorism already has the sympathy of a majority of the population and the strong allegiance o f many, will in the near future give rise to terrorist based governments in many middle-eastern countries. The second development in state sponsored terrorism is focused at the western nations, with Europe directly in the crosshairs and North America soon to follow. The most dangerous and most likely future development in the spread of terrorism is that caused by population growth and immigration of Muslims into western lands. The bottom line is that there is a near irreversible trend in the expansion of Islam into Europe and Canada.[125] In essence, Europe in the next 50 years will be of a very different demographic makeup as it is now. Of all population growth in the EU in the last 20 years, 90% has been from immigrants, much of which were Islamic.[126] In France, though the statistics vary, the Islamic fertility rate is considered much higher than the 1.8 of native Frenchmen, as Islamic immigrants make up only 7.5% of the population yet account for 20% of the fertility rate.[128] It is not just France. As of 2001, the Muslim population in Great Britain rose from 82,000 in 1991 to 1,600,000 (Estimated at 2,500,000 today).[131] Compared to the decline in population of a majority of the industrialized nations, The United States (thanks to Latino immigration) will maintain the current fertility rate of 2.11 children per couple, thus providing the body pool to maintain strength in the global economy, as the European Union falls to third place behind the United States and China.[132] Whether it be by overthrow in an unstable middle-eastern country, or out-breeding the populations of western nations, it can be assumed that RMIGs will gain control of (or at least strong influence over) a functioning country in the next half century. If the terrorists do gain control of a country with a fully functioning and stable government, the nature of the game changes drastically. When terrorists becomethe government, all terrorism is state-sponsored The nations wealth, scientists, laboratories and research facilities can be focused to develop weapons of mass destruction of all types for use in the global jihad. Even in the absence of WMD, by gaining the status and legitimacy of a national government, radical Islamists will present western and developed nations with a difficult problem. We have seen in Afghanistan and Pakistan the benefits that a sovereign safe-haven has provi Causes and Effects of Growing Terrorism Causes and Effects of Growing Terrorism Chapter 1 Introduction The Threat from Terrorism There are very few humans in the world today who have not had their lives altered or affected in some way through terrorist acts or the threat from terrorism. The highly publicized terrorist attacks in the United States, London, Madrid, and Mumbai were seen worldwide and have lead to sweeping changes in the security postures of many western and developed nations, as well as to a multi-nation war in Afghanistan. For those that have not felt the direct effects by losing someone close to them, there are many life altering after-shocks have had global reach and thus have effected nearly everyone. Every person who uses public transportation, rides in a plane/train, or crosses an international border will feel the effects of international terrorism through vastly increased security measures. Terrorism has changed foreign policy for many nations and has lead to wars.[1] In all, terrorism is rewriting the geopolitical map as we see it now and in the decades to come, will continue to change t he world as we know it. Radical Militant Islamic Groups There are many religions and political factions that have terrorist cells. In fact, in this day and age, one would be hard pressed to find a country or religion that does not have some form of fundamental or radicalized terrorist group in its midst. Groups espousing terror find roots in Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Buddhism and Hinduism.[2] This being said, in recent times, the most dangerous threat to western and developed nations comes from the Radical Militant Islamic Groups. These Islamic Militants have not only local and national reach, but can project their influence regionally and even globally (as seen with Al Qaeda and Hezbollah), and thus will be the focus of this dissertation. Shifting Sands: Since as far back as history dates, there has been war between peoples. Sometimes these peoples were evenly matched, and the battles pitted large armies against one another. Yet at other times, the odds were heavily in favor of one side, and the lesser of these groups had to resort to non-traditional warfare to inflict losses on their enemy. Sometimes these attacks were focused on the enemys military, and sometimes these attacks were focused on the citizenry of the enemy nation. The enemies could be nation vs nation or sometimes they were nation vs a non-state actor group. The pendulum has swung back and forth throughout history as to what is the root of terrorist groups. With the emergence of Al Qaeda we have seen that in the present day the non-state actor terrorist groups have taken center stage, though this may be about to change. Attempt to predict the future This paper engages the probability of predicting the future of global terrorism. This is achieved by analyzing the history of the origins and conceptual changes of terrorism over years past and current trends of terrorism as seen through the data available from the terrorism scholars of today. Though terrorism is not a completely Islamic phenomena, this paper will focus on terrorism from Radical Militant Islamic Groups, as this is the most predominant form of terrorism seen in the present day. It will attempt to lay out the evolution of terrorism to give some basis for a review of the current most important trends in terrorism. It will discuss the origins of ethno-nationalist (or state sponsored) terrorism and further discuss how this has morphed into the new transnational (or non-state actor) terrorism of today. Finally the paper will set the stage for the prediction of a future shift back to state sponsored terrorism and outline the reasons why this is going to occur. Chapter II Evolution of Terrorism – Historical Roots Mr. Speaker, I agree with those who say that the Global War  on Terrorism is actually a Global War of Ideas and that  terrorism is one of the tactics used in that War. Mac Thornberry (US Congressman) P re-Modern World: 1st Century BC to the 13th Century The history of [6] 1793: The Origins of Modern Terrorism In 1793, following the French revolution, Maximilien Robespierre instigated a reign of terror on those who opposed the French revolution.[7] This reign of terror is conventionally known as the birthplace of the word Terrorism.[9] Robespierres sentiment is the keystone in the beliefs of many modern terrorists, who consider violence the best and most efficient way to get to their desired outcome. As decades passed, the categorization of terrorism as a state action has blurred, as the idea of terrorism as an attack against an existing political order became more prominent. 1950s: The Rise of Non-State Terrorism Terrorism in the 1950s got its start from the guerilla warfare tactics popular with many insurgent groups of the time. This rise of guerrilla tactics by non-state actors in the last half of the twentieth century was due to several factors. These included the blossoming of ethnic nationalism (e.g. Irish, Basque, Zionist), anti-colonial sentiments in the vast British, French and Dutch empires, and new ideologies such as communism. In near recent times, terrorist groups with nationalist agendas have sprung up in every part of the world. For example, the Irish Republican Army grew from the desire of Irish Catholics to form an independent republic, and break their ties with Great Britain.[10] Similarly, the Kurds, a distinct ethnic and linguistic group in Turkey, Syria, Iran and Iraq, have sought national autonomy since the beginning of the 20th Century.[13] 1970s: The International Turn of Terrorism International terrorism came to the forefront as a prominent issue in the late 1960s, when hijacking of large airliners became a favored tactic. In 1968, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine became the first group to hijack an aircraft.[18] 1990s: 21 st Century: The Rise of Religious Terrorism Though an argument can be made that the rise of religiously motivated terrorism got its modern day start in Iran and Afghanistan to counter the political issues of the Shah and the Soviet Union, it came to the forefront with many highly visible violent acts committed during the 1990s. Groups that justify their violence on Islamic grounds Al Qaeda, Hamas, and Hezbollah come to mind first. But Christianity, Judaism, Hinduism and other religions have given rise to their own forms of militant extremism.[19] In recent years RMIGs have taken center stage for their astoundingly violent acts perpetrated against the citizenry of non-Muslim cultures. Chapter III Trends in Terrorism When you give religiously inspired zealots weapons of mass destruction and you promise them that if they kill innocent people they will go to heaven, imagine what the consequences are. Major Changes are Ahead There are major changes coming to terrorism in the years ahead. These changes can be seen from the trends of today, and will deeply change the threat to marked nations by terrorists and the terms on which we must fight the war against RMIGs. The top trends that will influence the changes in Terrorism Globally are summarized below. Fertility rates will lead Western Countries to come under Islamic rule In contrast to the developing world, many industrialized countries are currently, or will soon, see fertility rates below the replacement level and hence significant declines in populations, excluding the effects of immigration[22] Militant Islam continues to grow in both membership and power It has been clear for years that many Islamic nations face severe problems with religious extremists who are dedicated to advancing their political, social, and ideological views by any means necessary.[23] Nearly all of the Muslim lands are overcrowded and short of resources. Many are poor, save for the oil-rich states of the Middle East.[27] The Terrorist Ranks Are Growing The post 9/11 invasion of Afghanistan that lead to the unseating of the Taliban regime deprived Al Qaeda of a safe haven, striking a major blow against the global terrorist movement, yet by not following up effectively on that initial success, a great deal of benefit that could have been solidified was squandered. Additionally, with the invasion of Iraq, Al Qaeda and its sympathizers now have new grounds from which they can unite their members and, more importantly, recruit new ones.[32] At the heart of the Middle East fundamentalist movement are the wahabists of Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia has recently been forced to enact a program designed to keep Muslim men from going to Iraq to wage war against the coalition forces in a global jihad.[35] In this way, the foundation for terrorist cells are built which are independent of Al Qaeda but resolutely committed to the same objectives. Examples of this have been seen in the Madrid railway bombings which were carried out by Al Qaeda inspired Moroccan terrorist cell who were motivated by the Iraq invasion.[39] It is clear that RMIGs have significant sympathy among Europes Muslim population. The French riots of October and November 2005 affected at least twenty cities in that country, resulting in 2,888 arrests, leading to a further spill over of violence in Greece, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, Denmark, and Switzerland.[40] It has been proven that Saudi Arabia continues to fund and maintain connections with a broad group of religious schools, stretching from Pakistan to New York, and from the Philippines to India.[44] Individuals from Europe and the Middle East are embracing the extremist teachings, traveling to Afghanistan, Kashmir and Iraq to fight, and returning to their own countries, with the rights of western citizens to carry the fight against the very nations they were born to. RMIGs Will Gain Access to Weapons of Mass Destruction It must be assumed that tomorrows terrorists will make every effort to ensure that they have more than unconventional amounts of conventional explosives with which to make their violent point.[46] Pakistan represents by far the greatest opportunity for would-be nuclear terrorists to become nuclear terrorists. If Muslim extremists cannot gain access to stolen weapons from the former Soviet Republics, Islamabad may be their provider. Thankfully, this seems not to be a guarantee that terrorists will use nuclear weapons against the potential western targets. RMIGs will most likely receive large, hard to conceal, low-yield devices that will be difficult to smuggle to their target. Though one can be certain that terrorist organizations will try anyway, other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) look to be a much more likely option. Clouds of toxic gas or incompletely weaponized bacteria could find their way into New York City, London or Paris. Even more likely is the chemical weapon threat. As the Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo, demonstrated in a Tokyo subway in 1995, chemical weapons are available to essentially anyone who wants them badly enough to put in a modest effort to make or buy them.[47] The Home Grown threat from Muslim extremists is on the rise A 1994 terrorism study by the US Department of Defense predicted that by 2020 a majority of the worlds most important Muslim lands could be controlled by extremist religious governments.[52] Beyond that, for the first time, an Islamic country, Pakistan, has nuclear weapons. As previously mentioned, Islamic extremists view this technology as an Islamic bomb that could be used to promote their apocalyptic ideology, making nuclear terrorism a realistic threat. This threat will grow as Iraq, Sudan, Saudi Arabia, and other countries establish fundamentalist regimes that are willing to back the cause of jihad against the West. Saudi Arabia is well on the path to be taken over by a fundamentalist regime, and to attempt to postpone this, the Saud family will continue to provide more support to extremists and endeavor to direct the RMIGs attention to the West.[53] The overthrow of the Taliban in Afghanistan and the war in Iraq have strengthened the global jihadist movement, given them a training ground and built up the contacts for future terrorist acts. The gap between the Haves and the Have Nots will continue to increase The growing gap in wealth between the rich and poor countries looks as if it will further destabilize the world order, continuing to encourage prospective RMIGs in the less developed nations to foment violence against the rich in their own countries, or when available against western targets. This rising gap in wealth within many prosperous nations has the possibility to set off discontent among the less well-off, possibly helping to inspire random violence and acts of domestic terrorism in the West. The growing gap in wealth and income between the rich and the poor also may inspire conversion to Islam in the West, principally among the underprivileged. As seen in England and Australia, this can be a source of violent extremism among both immigrant and native populations.[54] Population growth is highest in those countries least able to support the growth The greatest fertility rates are found in those countries least able to support their existing populations: the largest population increases projected between 2000 and 2050 include the Palestinian Territory (217 percent), Niger (205 percent), Yemen (168 percent), Angola (162 percent), the Democratic Republic of Congo (161 percent), and Uganda (133 percent).[55] The Muslim world is reproducing at an extremely high rate, with fertility rates of 7.5 in Afghanistan, 6.0 in Yemen, and 4.9 in Iraq.[57] Even these estimates appear to be on the low side. According to CSIS, most official projections underestimate both the fertility rates and age of mortality, as well as making the assumption that life expectancy will grow more slowly in the future, which seems unlikely as world healthcare only continues to get better. Growing Western prosperity relative to other countries with rapidly growing populations and overburdened economies will continue to make the developed nations a target for terrorism. Shortages of food could help to motivate extremism unless the industrialized nations make a determined, visible effort to provide for the worlds poor. (Food production in the next 40 years will need to be significantly higher then ever before in the worlds history to keep the exploding world population from starvation).[58] Urbanization, will continue to increase rapidly According to the Population Reference Bureaus 2006 World Population Data Sheet, Forty-eight percent of the worlds population currently lives in cities. By 2030 that figure is expected to grow to 60 percent, as approximately 2.1 billion more people move to the worlds urban centers.[59] In industrialized nations, on average, more than three-fourths of the population lives in urban areas (urban areas are defined differently for each country).[62] Right now, there are billions of people who live in urban areas who lack adequate clean water, shelter, toilets and hygiene areas, and/or electricity.[63] The problems this raises with reference to crime, violence, and religious extremism is readily apparent. Concentrating the poor, oppressed and powerless in large cloistered urban centers produces conditions ideal for the spread of crime and the type of religious extremism that lends itself to violent ideologies. Chapter IV Old Terrorism Any government that supports, protects or harbours terrorists is complicit in the murder of the innocent and equally guilty of terrorist crimes. George W. Bush Old Terrorism – Ethno -nationalist or Ideological, and state sponsored What are the differences between the legitimate tactics used by authorities in the quelling or defence of terrorism, and terrorism itself? Nations at times will use violence to control or manipulate parts of their populace, or use intimidation to get what they desire.[67] A government that is an adversary of Country B may apply terror tactics in an effort to make up for real or perceived inadequacies in conventional warfare capabilities. Repression through terror of the indigenous population of their own country may occur to stop the dissent or violent uprising inside the country that Country B might exploit. Special Operations forces, paramilitary forces and state intelligence assets could conduct terrorist operations against Country B interests both inter-regionally and as far outside the countries borders as the abilities of their external security apparatus will allow to destabilize Country B and bring desired visibility to the sponsoring governments issues. Finally, attacks on Country B on their home soil may be conducted by RMIGs of the state or by other domestic proxies.[68] This is being seen today in Iraq with the Iranian involvement to destabilize Iraq and kill coalition servicemen, as well as Pakistans efforts to destabilize the Jammu and K ashmir region of India. Forms of State Terror Governmental or State terror State involvement in terror State sponsorship of terrorism Turning a blind eye to the harboring/funding of terror groups in their borders[69] Governmental or State terror Governmental or State terror is normally seen when a regime uses threats or outright terror to its own populace to exert power over or suppress them.[73] These weapons were not used against the majority Muslim population in the southern 2/3 of Iraq, where he accomplished his goals using conventional state terror methods. State involvement in terror State involvement in terror includes the activities where government personnel perform operations using terror tactics that are directed against other nations interests, individuals or private groups that have opposing or controversial opinions/actions viewed as counter to that of the state. In essence, it is governmentally authorized terrorism, though these sanctions hardly ever come to public light. Some past examples of this governmentally authorized terrorism are the assassination include the Soviet and Iranian assassination operations aimed at state dissidents who moved abroad for fear of their lives. Additionally, the targeting and destroying (through a covert bombing campaign carried out by Libyan and North Korean intelligence officers) of international airliners was another past example of this form of terrorism.[75] A further form of state involvement in terror is pro-state terror. This is a terror campaign carried out by small groups or individual people who have no authorized status in the system. These type of attacks generally are lacking in official support as well. Pro-state terror may have the end result of a desired outcome which the government wants. In these cases, with official use of violent crime tacitly supported by the authorities, even though the groups or individuals have gone outside the rule of punishment of the terrorists is rare. State sponsorship of terrorism State sponsorship of terrorism, also referred to as state supported terrorism, represents a situation when non-state terrorist organizations are trained, equipped and operationalized by an authorized national governmental agency. A very productive aspects of this support is the providing of safe havens for terrorists organizations.[78] Examples of state sponsorship of terrorism are the overt support by the government of Syria to Hamas as well as Lebanons overt support and backing of Hezbollah. Syrian funding and the providing of safe havens facilitate many training areas in the Beka Valley territory.[81] Chapter V New Terrorism Terrorism is carried out purposefully, in a cold-blooded, calculated fashion. The declared goals of the terrorist may change from place to place. He supposedly fig problems his only solution is the demolition of the whole structure of society. No partial solution, not even the total redressing of the grievance he complains of, will satisfy him until our social system is destroyed or delivered into his hands. BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, International Terrorism New Terrorism – Transnational or Global Jihadism The first efforts to describe a new form of terrorism began to occur in the 1990s, when scholars of terrorism attempted to make sense of a phenomenon they were seeing that did not fit into the previous model of terrorism in the 1970s and 1980s. Attacks such as that of the religious cult Aum Shinrikyo did not make sense without a reconsideration of the old model. In reality, the term new terrorism truly came into its own only after the September 11, 2001 attacks.[82] In a short comparative of the new and old terrorism, it has been stated that: * The new terrorism is justified on religious and apocalyptic grounds, while the old terrorism was rooted in political ideology.[83] * The new terrorism aims at destruction as an end in itself, while the old terrorism used violent destruction as a means to a political end;[84] * The new terrorism is organizationally distinct from the old terrorism. It is hierarchical (has many equally authoritative points of leadership) and horizontal, rather than hierarchical and vertical; it is decentralized rather than centralized;[85] * The new terrorism aims at as much destruction as possible, whether through devastating forms of weaponry or techniques such as suicide terrorism, whereas the old terrorism sought to create a dramatic spectacle with as little damage as possible;[86] More recently, those who write about new terrorism have focused on a perceived new threat of mass casualties caused by chemical, biological or other agents.[89] On the counter point, when one looks holistically and historically at Terrorism, there seems to be no old or new terrorism, just a Darwinistic evolution of violence for political purposes. Even Martha Crenshaw, the noted terrorism expert who is a staunch advocate against the use of the term New Terrorism states the following in comparing and contrasting the goals, methods, and organization of New and Old Terrorism: Goals The new terrorism model assumes uniformly that religion, primarily of those groups with millennial and apocalyptic ideologies, is the main precipitating factor. The new terrorists are said to have ambiguous goals on the systemic level and to value destruction for its own sake (i.e., the means are the ends). By contrast, the old terrorism is seen as comprehensible, limited, more specific, and often tied to territory – thus making the grievance more susceptible to negotiation. How well does the new terrorism model fit the historical record? Crenshaw observes that the religion behind various groups (e.g., Aum Shinrikyo versus Al Qaeda) differs, as do their goals (i.e., local or global). She also notes that some of the old terrorist groups (e.g., the 19th century anarchists and the Red Army Faction) had broad, transnational goals.[90] Means According to the new terrorism model, groups seek to kill as many people as possible and are particularly drawn to weapons of mass destruction, whereas the old terrorism approach assumed that the groups were limited in their means as well as goals. Crenshaw acknowledged that the new terrorism model best fits with respect to this criterion. [91] Organization and structure The new terrorists are decentralized and networked, are inspiration-driven, and often include amateurs. By contrast, the old terrorists are centralized, top-down, professional organizations that are often state sponsored. The new terrorism distinction only partly meets this criterion as many of the old terrorist groups, such as the Red Army faction, were not so monolithic. The bottom line seems to lend itself to seeing terrorism as not new in kind, but in degree and structure.[92] The new terror groups of today (Al Qaeda being the most well known) center mainly around religion as a core for recruitment and promulgation of ideology. Islam is the religion of choice and has found a massive following in Middle Eastern Arab Muslims, especially the Wahabists of Saudi Arabia, but the splinter groups, or those groups loosely associated, have worldwide reach.[93] These organizations differ significantly from more traditional terrorist organizations of past decades. The groups of today do not depend on the sponsorship of a political state, and, unlike the PLO or the IRA, they are not defined by a particular conflict. Instead, these groups operate analogous to the businesses McDonalds or Starbucks. Al Qaeda is the franchise owner, providing financial and logistical support, as well as name recognition, to local, regional and transnational terrorist groups operating in such diverse places as the Philippines, Algeria, Eritrea, Afghanistan, Chechnya, Tajikistan, Somalia, Ye men, and Kashmir. Local groups may carry out acts in the name of al-Qaeda in order to bolster their own reputation—even if they are not receiving support from the organization. This is possible because the ideology that al Qaeda has developed and promulgated focuses their concepts to stress a few main tenants to ensure the survival and spread of the movement. Ensuring the perpetuity of the fight.[94] Obeying the individual obligation to fight Islams enemies regardless of the apparent outcome of battle[95] Institutionalizing a culture of martyrdom[96] Pinpointing Islams enemies through the refining process of jihad, and thus maintaining its identity[97] Establishing pride, brotherhood, and unity in the face of threats to the ummah[98] Creating a parity of suffering with Islams enemies—especially the Jews and Crusaders[99] Victory is seen in the maladies afflicting Gods enemies, especially economic recession and natural disasters[100] Observing miracles and dreams in jihad, which foretell of divine guidance and ultimate victory for the mujahedeen[101] As long as groups follow these main tenants, and focus their violence against the common enemy, then they are supporting the common cause. Due to this, Scott Atran argues that it is not religion, but group dynamics based off of social needs that fuels the Global Jihadist movement but small-group dynamics involving friends and family that form the diaspora cell of brotherhood and camaraderie on which the rising tide of martyrdom actions is based.[102] As mentioned by Crenshaw above, one of the main improvements of New terrorism is that of decentralized execution of actions that may or may not have been planned by some higher authority. As stated in the United States Air Force Defense Doctrine publication 1, Decentralized execution is, the delegation of execution authority to responsible and capable lower-level commanders to achieve effective span of control and to foster disciplined initiative, situational responsiveness, and tactical flexibility.[103] Chapter VI New Old Terrorism In todays wars, there are no morals. We believe the worst thieves in the world today and the worst terrorists are the Americans. We do not have to differentiate between military or civilian. As far as we are concerned, they are all targets. Osama Bin Laden Time magazine profile (16 September 2001) The Pendulum Swings Back For better or worse (and this author believes it is worsemuch worse) the pendulum is swinging back in the direction of state sponsored terrorism. For nations like Pakistan and Iran, the pendulum never moved, as these countries have been manning, training, equipping, and operationalizing terrorist groups for decades.[108] Iran has consistently been described by the United States as the worlds foremost state sponsor of terrorism. It actively supports terrorist groups, most prominently the Lebanese group Hezbollah.[115]. Iran and Hezbollah Hezbollah, a radical Shiite militia based in Lebanon, is a direct product of funding and training by Irans IRGC (QF). It was formally established in 1982 following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, aimed at uprooting the PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) bases there.[119] RMIG takeover of Islamic Nations For other nations that have not been wholly engaged in state sponsored terrorism, there are growing dangers as well. There are two types of new and developing state sponsored terrorism which may very soon roll a number of these nations into the terrorist state fold. The first one, unfortunately, we are all familiar with, as the most accurate example being the Al Qaeda infiltration of Afghanistan. After the Soviet Union finally withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989 the communist Afghani government hung on for three more years, and then was finally overrun by RMIGs.[121] These services and practical, day-to-day contributions to the lives of ordinary citizens will provide a legitimacy and underpinning for future political activities by terrorist organizations. This RMIG sponsored ground root social support, combined with the reality that in almost every country in the Muslim world, western focused terrorism already has the sympathy of a majority of the population and the strong allegiance o f many, will in the near future give rise to terrorist based governments in many middle-eastern countries. The second development in state sponsored terrorism is focused at the western nations, with Europe directly in the crosshairs and North America soon to follow. The most dangerous and most likely future development in the spread of terrorism is that caused by population growth and immigration of Muslims into western lands. The bottom line is that there is a near irreversible trend in the expansion of Islam into Europe and Canada.[125] In essence, Europe in the next 50 years will be of a very different demographic makeup as it is now. Of all population growth in the EU in the last 20 years, 90% has been from immigrants, much of which were Islamic.[126] In France, though the statistics vary, the Islamic fertility rate is considered much higher than the 1.8 of native Frenchmen, as Islamic immigrants make up only 7.5% of the population yet account for 20% of the fertility rate.[128] It is not just France. As of 2001, the Muslim population in Great Britain rose from 82,000 in 1991 to 1,600,000 (Estimated at 2,500,000 today).[131] Compared to the decline in population of a majority of the industrialized nations, The United States (thanks to Latino immigration) will maintain the current fertility rate of 2.11 children per couple, thus providing the body pool to maintain strength in the global economy, as the European Union falls to third place behind the United States and China.[132] Whether it be by overthrow in an unstable middle-eastern country, or out-breeding the populations of western nations, it can be assumed that RMIGs will gain control of (or at least strong influence over) a functioning country in the next half century. If the terrorists do gain control of a country with a fully functioning and stable government, the nature of the game changes drastically. When terrorists becomethe government, all terrorism is state-sponsored The nations wealth, scientists, laboratories and research facilities can be focused to develop weapons of mass destruction of all types for use in the global jihad. Even in the absence of WMD, by gaining the status and legitimacy of a national government, radical Islamists will present western and developed nations with a difficult problem. We have seen in Afghanistan and Pakistan the benefits that a sovereign safe-haven has provi